Gujarat Opinion Poll: Pride for Gujarati PM biggest challenge for Congress alliance


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Gujarat Opinion Poll: Pride for Gujarati PM biggest challenge for Congress alliance

The results of the opinion poll on Gujarat Assembly elections are here. The survey was carried out by Axis-My India for the India Today Group.

Despite a high-pitched election campaign by the Congress and Rahul Gandhi in battleground Gujarat, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to register a big win in the state. According to the opinion poll by Axis-My India for the India Today Group, the BJP is likely to win 110-125 of the 182 Assembly seats in Gujarat.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE AXIS-MY INDIA OPINION

The Congress in alliance with OBC leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani is projected to bag 57-65 seats. If Patidar agitation leader Hardik Patel decides to back the Congress, the party’s projected tally may go up to 62-71 seats.

According to the Axis-My India opinion poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win anywhere between 110 and 125 Assembly seats in Gujarat. The party has set itself a target of winning 150 of the 182 Assembly seats in the state.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which has recently announced the first list of 11 candidates for the Gujarat Assembly election, and Shankersinh Vaghela supported political outfit Jan Vikalp are projected to bag 0-3 seats.

The BJP’s projected vote share stands at 48 per cent, while for the Congress it is between 38-40 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party and Vaghela’s outfit could account for 12 per cent of the total vote share in election.

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is the top choice for the CM’s post with 34 per cent of the respondents backing him, followed by Congress MLA Shaktisinh Gohil with 19 per cent support and Gujarat Congress chief  Bharatsinh Solanki with 11 per cent votes.

According to the Axis-My India opinion poll, the biggest issue for the upcoming Assembly election is inflation, followed by employment, development, road, water, agricultural facilities, electricity, fair prices of crop, healthcare and schools.

Asked on whether they were satisfied with Goods and Services Tax (GST), 51 per cent respondents replied in negative with only 38 per cent backing it. Fifty-three per cent said demonetisation has not benefitted as against 44 per cent saying it has.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains undisputed with 66 per cent of the respondents saying that Gujarat has benefitted after Modi became the Prime Minister. 

Of the farmers surveyed by Axis-My India, 49 per cent said they were dissatisfied with the facilities provided to them by the state government. Only 38 per cent were satisfied with the state government initiatives for farmers.

Majority of the respondents, 58 per cent, replied in affirmative to the question on ’Should we have a bullet train’. Last month, Narendra Modi along with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe laid the foundation stone for the much talked-about Ahmedabad-Mumbai high-speed bullet train project.

GUJARAT SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS: Positives of Congress

1. Recent alliance of Alpesh Thakor (OSS Ekta Manch - OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Dalit activist leader) - The support and entry of these young social activists and their power to influence the voters is yet to be seen at ground level.

2. Hardik Patel Impact : In case Hardik Patel supports Congress then the party is likely to get overall 40 per cent vote share. This will be an increase of 2 per cent vote share but additional 10 per cent vote share for Congress among Patel community. This is is resulting in additional 5-7 seats for Congress.

3. Congress has an edge among 30 per cent of the total voters (Muslim - 10 per cent, Patel - 14 per cent, Dalit - 6 per cent)

4. People are unhappy with BJP due to the implementation of GST.

GUJARAT SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS: Positives of BJP

1. BJP has an edge among 67 per cent of the total voters (OBC - 37 per cent, ST - 15 per cent and General - 15 per cent)

2. Shankersinh Vaghela veteran is in the political arena after his exit from Congress.

3.The pride and delight quotient of having a Gujarati PM supersedes all the other factors.

4. People do not have any issues about basic amenities - road, electricity, drinking water, education and healthcare.

5. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, Mission Indradhanush (Immunisation of children) and Ujala Gujarat Yojana for distribution of LED bulbs have benefited people.

METHODOLOGY

The methodology and sample profile for Axis-My India opinion poll involved face-to-face interview with questionnaire for 182 Assembly constituencies; 18,243 sample size; 30 dedicated surveyors; and more than 19 days of field work (from September 25 to October 15).

Comments on this Article
Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai Wed, October-25-2017, 8:13
PAPPU PASS HOGAYA ...
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