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In an interview with ET Now, Ashok Gautam, Senior Vice President & Head Global Markets, Treasury, Axis Bank, talks about where the rupee can go from here. Excerpts:
What is the next level that you are watching out for the rupee? Does it seem like 50 is going to be crossed today itself?
Earlier we said that if it breaches 49.20 very convincingly, then the room is open till 50.75. So let’s see how far that journey takes place, but I am not going to say that it is going to happen today or by tomorrow, but let us see what has happened today across since morning. We have seen that Aussie has seen a massive fall and the other East Asian currencies have also seen their fall. So today again, the outlook for the rupee will be that it weakens.
There were some reports of the RBI intervention on September 14 for the first time in about two years. Do you think it happened yesterday as well because the FM has denied any intervention up until now though?
Let’s go by the official version because I have no way to confirm it because this happens whenever the rupee gains 10 paisa or 20 paisa. There were rumours in the market, but at this point of time, we have no way to confirm it unless RBI comes and say that it will intervene in the market. So let us go by the official stand.
The point I am trying to make here is that the market is suddenly actually praying or looking for that, maybe there is some kind of intervention so that they see some kind of respite because the kind of move which we have seen has been very sharp. It has taken people by surprise and I am sure a lot of external commercial borrowings which are in the market and I pray that they are not unhedged because if they are unhedged then people are in for a tough time.
High-flying gold crashes in record $100 freefall
NEW YORK: Gold crashed more than $100 on Friday, as a slide turned into a free fall, with weeks of volatility, renewed strength in the dollar and talk of hedge fund liquidation wrecking its safe-haven status.
The sell-off came even after relative calm was restored to the stock and oil markets following Thursday’s losses. Bonds also dived with gold and silver as investors took profit on a near week-long rally in US Treasuries.
Widespread talk of possible selling by big hedge funds covering losses in other markets set off one of the biggest routs on record in the precious metals group.
The CME Group, which oversees trading in US gold and silver futures, responded by raising margins, or deposits, required on trades of the two precious metals as well as copper. The move would further squeeze the most optimistic investors in gold, who are trying to hold onto long positions or bets on higher prices.
"We’re making new lows and the bull case for gold is on pause for the near term," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist for precious metals at MF Global in Chicago.
"In the near term, the flight-to-quality interest in owning gold is also out of the window as people are not interested in buying it even in the face of fears in the economy. Until it stabilizes, I’m staying out of this market."
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