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MUMBAI: Blame it on growing levels of stress, obesity or pollutants in the air, counts of the microscopic sperm are falling and causing mega concern across the globe. One estimate holds that it has fallen by as much as 50% in the last 50 years.

Dr P M Bhargava, who worked out the Indian guidelines for assisted reproductive techniques (which are soon expected to become the law), said the trend of falling sperm counts was noticed in the mid-90s in the West. "Some doctors in India believe that sperm counts are falling locally too," he said, adding that the western studies show that counts have been falling by 2% every year. "At this rate, there would be no fertile men left in the next 40-50 years," added the Hyderabad-based Bhargava, who is counted among India’s foremost scientists.

A couple of years back, a study from Scotland of 7,500 men who attended the Aberdeen Fertility Centre between 1989 and 2002 showed that average sperm concentrations fell by nearly 30%. Another study from Copenhagen found a newer reason apart from alcohol abuse, smoking and obesity for this decline -endocrine disrupters. "Many everyday substances such as plastic buckets (or milk bottles) emit chemicals that are similar to estrogen, the female hormone,’’ said Bhargava. It is exposure to the female hormone-like chemicals that could be reducing the sperm count in men, believe a school of scientists. Commonly used pesticides such as DDT and dioxins have been named as culprits.

Many disagree. Infertility specialist Dr Aniruddha Malpani said endocrine disrupters are just one of the unproven theories floating around to explain falling sperm counts. "It is the most famous theory, but it hasn’t been proven yet,’’ he said. Rising infertility is a problem for both men and women due to late marriages and delayed child-bearing, he added.

Dr Anjali Malpani gives a statistical break-up of how sperm counts have been falling steadily over the decades. "When we started Mumbai’s first sperm bank two decades ago, we would get donors who would easily have counts of 40-60 million spermatozoa per millilitre,’’ she said. But in 2009-end, the World Health Organization (WHO) revised its definition of normal sperm count to 20 million per ml. So, the Malpani sperm bank only rejects potential donors whose counts are below 15 million per ml. "In 1950, the WHO itself had pegged the normal count as 113 million per ml," she added.

Sperm donation itself has undergone a sea change in Mumbai. "Two decades ago, when we set up the city’s first sperm bank, we were asked how we could use such a word openly. It was difficult to get donors because men would say they didn’t want lookalikes walking down the streets 20 years hence," said Anjali Malpani.

Now, Mulund-based sperm bank Trivector gets six to seven potential donors walking in every day. "About 70% of them are rejected because of the stringent selection criteria," said Trivector’s Dilip Patil, adding that college students come in to donate for extra money. "We get students from Mulund, neighbouring Navi Mumbai and western suburbs that are close by.’’

However, very few from south Mumbai opt to donate at his clinic. "We do have some donors who come in swanky cars and donate because it is a noble cause. There is a CEO who drives down to Mumbai to donate sperms on a regular basis," added Patil.

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Rupee may depreciate to 53 levels on macro factors: India Forex

The rupee rose to the 52.20 levels - a new three-month low against the dollar on Friday - its weakest since 10 January 2012. It has depreciated almost 1.5% against the greenback this week too from the last week’s closing of the 51.30 levels.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets last week by cutting its repo rates by 50 bps, as against the market expectation of 25 bps.

The scope for a further interest rate cut had decreased since the governor stated an upside risk of inflation, which made the markets tremble.

The RBI releases data on intervention with a lag of nearly two months and the latest one on Monday showed that the bank had bought $1.1 billion and sold $1.4 billion in the spot market in February. Forex reserves with RBI slipped below $300 billion to $293 billion from 30 December 2011, reducing the central bank’s strength to intervene in the forex market.

In spite of the recent RBI intervention, the rupee is consistently depreciating on account of domestic factors, such as current account deficit, inflation, liquidity issues, higher interest rates, a slowing economy, which continue to put pressure on the rupee.

The trade gap has hit a record $185 billion for 2011-12, according to data released on Thursday and the current account deficit is likely to stand at 4% of GDP in the last financial year.

An intervention will not help as we still see heavy import demand. Oil prices continue to stay above $100 a barrel, being a net importer of crude. The rising prices and the huge dollar demand from oil players are keeping the rupee under pressure.

Given the huge shortage of dollars in the forex market, since everyone is diving into it as a safe haven, expect the rupee to face relentless pressure.

The government’s inability to lift the economy or introduce any reform to support it makes investors cautious about the growth outlook for the nation.

Overall, the outlook remains negative for the rupee which may hit Rs 53 to the dollar soon. It had touched a record low of 54.30 in mid-December 2011.

"There are no great limits to growth because there are no limits of human intelligence, imagination, and wonder," Ronald Reagan said. Unfortunately, we are seeing a lack of government intelligence to move the economy to sustainable levels.

As mentioned above, macroeconomic factors are weighing on the rupee. The growing dependence on FIIs and FDI are making the long-term growth prospect of the economy very bleak.

Investors could be attracted on the back of some positive reforms and a decent growth prospect, which are seen lacking, to lure them.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pegged growth in India’s GDP for 2012 at 6.9%, scaling down the forecast by 0.1 percentage points from its projection in January.

It attributed the moderating growth outlook to policy uncertainty, supply bottlenecks, high interest rates and low external demand. On the external front, spillovers from Europe reflected in the slowing exports and the slowing world economy. This is escalating the poor sentiment in India.

The government, on Friday approved 22 foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals amounting to Rs 586.137 crore ($112.5 million). FIIs invested more than Rs 445 billion in the equity market this year.

In April 2012, we have seen Rs 1,376.20 crore inflows in the debt market and outflows of Rs. 749.40 crore in equity.

Looking at the deficit of $185 billion, we need a minimum $15 billion to meet our requirements. The state of FIIs has been very volatile, making stocks hit 16,000 again and the rupee hit new lows against the dollar possibly.

By Abhishek Goenka, CEO, India Forex India Pvt. Ltd