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Welfare, regional factors provided ballast to BJP in Uttar Pradesh
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Print Welfare, regional factors provided ballast to BJP in Uttar Pradesh: post-poll survey
The relatively high popularity of the Central government, the positive effects of welfare schemes and, in the case of Uttar Pradesh, a sharp religious polarisation led to the BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa. These are the findings of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti’s post-poll survey conducted in these three States and Punjab, published exclusively by The Hindu. (No post-poll study was done in Manipur.)
Besides these factors, the effective bipolarity of competition was a major factor in U.P., Uttarakhand and Punjab. Goa, without such sharp bipolarity, gave the BJP only a slight advantage.
The survey finds that voters were more satisfied with Central government than they were with the State governments in the four States. In Punjab, there was a high level of dissatisfaction with both the Central and State governments. While more than half of the respondents exclusively blamed the government for COVID-19-related deaths in Punjab, one-third in U.P. and even fewer in Uttarakhand did so. Respondents mentioned unemployment and price rise as the key problems they face, but the BJP’s victories in U.P., Uttarakhand and Goa were due to the votes of the beneficiaries of free rations and cash transfers, among other factors. The party mattered more than the candidate, which explains the strong support for the BJP in U.P. and Uttarakhand, and for the AAP in Punjab. The candidate mattered more in Goa, which explained the tight race there.
The surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews at the elector’s home after voting had taken place in constituencies that were randomly selected.
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