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RBI holds rates, raises FY24 inflation forecast to 5.4%
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Print RBI holds rates, raises FY24 inflation forecast to 5.4%; retains GDP growth projection at 6.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India on August 10 decided unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5% even as it raised the projection for retail inflation in the current fiscal year by 30 basis points to 5.4%.
The MPC also decided by a majority of 5 out of 6 members to stay with its policy stance of remaining focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.
“Headline inflation, after reaching a low of 4.3% in May 2023, rose in June and is expected to surge during July-August led by vegetable prices,” observed RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, explaining the MPC’s rationale for its decisions.
Stressing that the MPC remained resolute in its commitment to aligning inflation to the 4% target and anchoring inflation expectations, the RBI Governor asserted that India could withstand external headwinds far better than other countries, with the momentum of overall economic activity continuing to be positive.
The CPI inflation projection for 2023-24, assuming a normal monsoon, was revised upwards to 5.4% from the 5.1% forecast in June, with Q2 at 6.2%, Q3 at 5.7%, and Q4 at 5.2%. For Q1 FY25 price gains were projected at 5.2%, the MPC said, adding “the risks are evenly balanced”.
To address the problem of excess liquidity with banks, the RBI decided that with effect from the fortnight beginning August 12, 2023, scheduled banks would maintain an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) of 10% on the increase in their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) between May 19, 2023 and July 28, 2023.
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