Write Comment     |     E-Mail To a Friend     |     Facebook     |     Twitter     |     Print

Growth rate at 6%, India will remain lower middle economy by 2047, says Raghuram Rajan

Former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said India will still remain a lower middle country if the potential growth rate remains at 6% annually without any rise in population by 2047 (Amrit Kaal) and will be reaching the end of the demographic dividend by then.

Speaking at a programme organised by Manthan in Hyderabad, he said if the country does not grow faster, it will grow older (demographically) before it gets richer, which means there is the burden of an ageing population also to deal with at that point.

Rajan said the GDP growth in India for the past two quarters was in the region of 7.5% and if one looks at the labour force participation, it is very low and when it comes to female participation, “it is the lowest in the G20”.

“India’s growth potential is today about 6% a year, GDP growth. If you do the math, at 6% a year, you double every 12 years and therefore in 24 years, we’ll be four times our per capita income. Today, the per capita income in India, as you know, is just a little below $2,500 per person. Multiply by four, we get $10,000 per person…So if you do the math, at our current rate of growth, you know, strong as it is highest in the G20, we don’t get rich but we stay lower middle income till 2047,” he said.

The former RBI chief said some southern States are growing with regards to population at below reproduction rate, in other words, the fertility rate has fallen below reproduction rate thus slowing the growth.

“In other words, we will start the process of aging at some point around that time, which leads to the alarming question if we don’t grow faster, we will grow old before we grow rich, which means we all have all the burdens of an aging population to deal with also at that point,” he opined.

Rajan said some of the developed nations moved from manufacturing to services as part of moving up the value chain after they became richer.

Those countries are largely services economies with 70% of the workforce in rich countries, typically in the service industry and 20% in manufacturing, 5% each in construction and agriculture, he noted.