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With no forceful bid from BJP, Congress could go laughing all the way up Raisina Hill

President Hamid Ansari or President Pranab Mukherjee? The choice appears to have narrowed down to these two gentlemen for Rashtrapati Bhavan even as the opening round of consultations to fill this exalted position has reached mid-way.

Congress party – lead partner of the ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition – has made initial moves of consulting most of its allies – the NCP, DMK and TMC. Next week, the interlocutors of the Congress may speak to friendly parties such as the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, followed by the main Opposition BJP and other parties.

Neither the Congress nor the allies have broken their silence on the talks. However, sources in all these parties indicate that incumbent Vice President Ansari and Finance Minister Mukherjee have emerged top contenders in the race.

There are various permutations and combinations for the Congress to have thrown up these two names, both respected in political and other circles. Mukherjee has all the credentials and fits the bill as an able politician who can occupy the post that is falling vacant as a listless Pratibha Patil retires on July 24. A no-nonsense politician with a long innings in government and Parliament behind him, he would be seen as the best among his hue to make it to the country’s top-most constitutional post. However, if the parties favour a non-politician, Ansari could well be the choice. A former foreign service officer, Ansari, as chairman of Rajya Sabha has conducted the House well, save for December 29 when the debate on Lokpal Bill ended in acrimony as he adjourned it sine die at the stroke of 12 midnight even as Opposition parties wanted voting in a House where ruling UPA does not enjoy majority.

Getting Mukherjee to Raisina Hill - which houses the 340-room majestic Rashtrapati Bhavan - would be akin to Congress repaying its gratitude to a man who did yeomen service to the party and to its successive governments (he entered Parliament in 1969!). The party and the scam-ridden Centre have depended on him so heavily that he has been the trouble shooter for every problem that has arisen in the last eight years, since UPA surprised everyone and romped home in 2004.

Mukherjee has admirers across the political spectrum, including main Opposition BJP, unlike Ansari whom the party dislikes. Thus, working up a consensus in favour of 76-year-old ‘Pranabda’ may not be too difficult. However, there is a lurking fear among his followers that Congress may ditch him at the last minute as the party’s first family was earlier known to ‘mistrust’ the Bengali babu, who has come to carry the burden of making a bid for the prime minister’s post immediately after the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
As for Ansari, the UPA and some partners of the NDA such as JD(U), regional outfits like BJD, AIADMK, TDP, JD(S) etc, besides the Left should have no problem. Ansari has an unblemished record too. In case he fails to make it to Raisina Hill, the 77-year-old academic and former diplomat bagging a second term as VP cannot be ruled out.

Despite its sagging image owing to the numerous scandals dogging its government, the Congress has stolen a march over the BJP in the presidential race. As the ruling party confidently holds talks with its allies, the main Opposition has fallen silent, thanks to a self goal hit by Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj. The BJP leader stunned everyone by saying the party is “opposed to Mukherjee as he is an active politician and to Ansari as he lacks stature.” She was delivered a snub by ally Janata Dal(United) which said it did not reflect the NDA stand. Worse for BJP if the regional party breaks ranks and supports the UPA candidate. After this incident, the BJP appeared to be so hopelessly out of the loop, its support for former president A P J Abdul Kalam found no takers!

As of now, among UPA and friendly parties, DMK and SP have favoured a politician for the job, RJD a non-politician while views of BSP and TMC have not been made public (nor is the stand of non-BJP, non-Congress parties such as BJD and AIADMK known).
 That the mercurial Mamata Banerjee has linked her decision to Bengal’s tax moratorium demand made directly to the Prime Minister, may render the Congress task even more difficult. Contrast this to what Mamata had said a day earlier, hinting that she would go with Sonia’s choice:

“Look, we had decided not to vote in the elections for vice president last time (when Left parties proposed name of Ansari and Congress supported him) but we voted when Gandhi made a request to me.”

Interlocutors say the key could lie with three parties – Congress, the proposer, TMC and SP, the seconders. Mamata stressed after meeting Mulayam that the two parties will take decisions jointly on the Presidential poll.

Whether a consensus emerges or not, the non-UPA parties may be rendered insignificant if Congress garners the support of all its partners, besides those of friendly parties. The UPA does not have majority of its own in the complex electoral college for the presidential election but with friendly parties and Left support, its task will be made easier (see graphics).

Mentor in the offing?

In the electoral college, UPA has about 42 per cent votes and thus has to depend on friends like SP, BSP, RJD to garner  the  minimum 50 per cent plus one vote for its nominee to win. The NDA has 28 per cent and non-UPA, non-NDA parties together have 24 per cent with smaller parties making up the remaining six per cent.

Is a consensus possible? It depends on how Congress plays its cards and which candidate it pushes forward. It may also depend on the vice president’s election, due in August. If Congress agrees to leave the post to the NDA, a consensus on the presidential candidate is possible. But the party offering the post to the Opposition is remote.

PRANAB MUKHERJEE

The 76-year-old veteran politician has been the troubleshooter for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance ever since the coalition came into power in 2009. He first held the Defence and then the External Affairs portfolios in the UPA’s first tenure in power, but did much more than managing the foreign policy of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Government.

He was the Congress’ key interlocutor for talks with the leftist allies on contentious issues till the communist parties withdrew support to the UPA in the wake of the Government’s move to clinch a deal with the United States for civil nuclear cooperation. After the 26/11 carnage in Mumbai, he led India’s diplomatic offensive against Pakistan and won support from the international community.

As Finance Minister, Mukherjee – the No 2 in UPA-II’s pecking order – has been leading the beleaguered Government’s defence, both in and outside Lok Sabha.

Mukherjee, born in Birbhum in West Bengal in 1935, taught in a college and even worked as a journalist, before joining politics. He started his parliamentary career as a Congress member of Rajya Sabha in 1969. He was re-elected to the RS in 1975, 1981, 1993, and 1999. He was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2004 and 2009.

His ministerial career begun in 1973 as the deputy minister of industrial development. He was the Union Minister of Finance from 1982 to 1984, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission between 1991 and 1996 and External Affairs Minister from 1995 to 1996.

MOHAMMED HAMID ANSARI

Seventy-five-year-old grand nephew of Mukhtar Ahmad Ansari, a prominent leader of independence movement, who had also headed the Indian National Congress and Muslim League, was born in Kolkata in 1937. He studied at Shimla’s St Edwards High School, the St Xavier’s College of the University of Calcutta and at the Aligarh Muslim University.

After joining Indian Foreign Service in 1961, he served in many Indian missions around the world. He was India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, High Commissioner to Australia and Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Ansari was the Vice-Chancellor of the Aligarh Muslim University from May 2000 to March 2002. He was the chairman of the National Commission of Minorities from March 6, 2006. He, however, resigned from the post in 2007, after being nominated for the election of the Vice President.

As the chairman of the Rajya Sabha, Ansari in December 2011 saved the Congress-led UPA Government from embarrassment by adjourning the winter session of the House sine die, abruptly halting an intense debate on the Lokpal Bill.

The prez derby

Electoral college
MPs and MLAs

10,98,882

Minimum required to win

5,49,442
(50% + 1 vote)

Minimum votes required   50%

UPA     42 %

4,60,191

NDA      28 %

3,04,785

NON-UPA/ NON-NDA          24 %

Small parties    6 %

Vote share

Cong     3.3 lakh
BJP    2.25 lakh

* The value of each MLA’s vote is calculated by dividing the population according to 1971 census by the number of Assembly seats and the quotient further divided by 1000.

* A total of 4896 (4120 MLAs and 776 MPs) vote for President.

* Value of one MP’s vote-  708

*  Value of one MLA’s vote  depends on the strength of the Assembly and population of that state.

*  The vote of one MLA from UP has a value of 208 but that of one MLA from Sikkim has just seven!

*  Notification for election likely to be issued around June 15
*  Rajya Sabha secretary-general to conduct elections
*  Likely last date for filing nominations is June 30
*  Election likely on July 19