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NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains have stumbled again after a late onset and been confined to a narrow coastal belt for six days, delaying crop planting and giving jitters to the government that is counting on a good harvest to prop up the shaky economy and control prices.

Rainfall in June has been 40% below normal so far, and officials say they are ready with contingency plans but are still expecting bumper harvests as the monsoon is expected to get back on track in 48 hours. But agricultural scientists say the dry patch is a concern as crops need heavy showers in the beginning of the season to be able to withstand drier weather in the subsequent months due to the possible occurrence of the dreaded El Nino phenomenon.

ET had reported that the monsoon was not expected to advance beyond the coastal regions for about a week after June 5. The agriculture ministry is closely watching the monsoon, which has been 58% below average in the south.

IMD Says Too Early to Worry

The monsoon has a 70% deficit in the main oilseed-growing region in central India. Only 16% of the country has received normal rainfall this month, potentially hurting paddy, oilseeds and coarse grain cultivation.

"We expect a good monsoon this year, resulting in a bumper crop. But we are also ready with our contingency plans in case of deficient rains," said Agriculture Secretary Ashish Bahuguna.

Monsoon is vital for India as 55% of the arable land depends entirely on rain for irrigation. While agriculture accounts for only about 15% of the economy, monsoon has a wider impact because it affects millions of people in villages, and weak rainfall can raise food prices and the already high overall inflation.

Analysts say concerns of adverse weather have already affected global prices of some commodities such as sugar, which fell sharply this year but has risen a bit in recent days. In the past, El Nino has damaged crops by upsetting rainfall patterns from Australia to South America. It has a 50% chance of developing this year, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre, while Indian officials had earlier said there was a 30% chance.

LS Rathore, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, said it was too early to worry about weak rainfall. "It’s the initial phase of the monsoon. There is no cause of concern for summer crops at this point of time. The crop window in the country is quite large. There’s a large amount of time left for sowing," he said.

However, crop experts such as RS Sharma, a senior scientist at the Agricultural Policy and Research Centre, said early rains were important because there was a risk of El Nino developing. "Timing has become the most important factor amid chances of El Nino striking in August-September. If sowing gets delayed, there will be a major threat to crops. Moreover, timely and normal monsoon is also vital for winter crops as it raises the water table and moisture content in the soil," he said.

Experts say delay of more than two weeks will badly affect the yield of oilseeds, paddy and pearl millet. "Yield will be affected only if monsoon gets delayed by more than 15 days. It will be more visible in paddy, pearl millet and oilseeds. But in pulses and other leguminous plants, where late sowing is advised to minimise vegetative losses, the impact will be little," said CB Pandey, head, division of natural resources and environment, Central Arid Zone Research Institute.

He said in case of delayed monsoon, early varieties and mixed cropping are advised. "If rains delay, acreage of major crops is shortened and replaced by early varieties and pulses to minimise losses," Pandey said.