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Barring Mizoram, BJP projected to win in three states, Delhi

The Congress may draw a blank in the current round of Assembly elections as the rival Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to retain Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, wrest power in Rajasthan, and most likely in Delhi as well, according to several exit polls.

A solitary exit poll conducted in Mizoram too does not give a clear majority to the Congress, which is currently in power in the state.

Five different poll agencies published their exit poll projections for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram and the Union Territory of Delhi soon after the entire phase of polling for the current round of Assembly elections concluded with the voting in Delhi on Wednesday. The counting of votes is scheduled for Sunday, except for Mizoram where the counting will be on Monday.

The BJP’s biggest win is projected to come in Madhya Pradesh, where five separate exit polls give the party a big win in the 230-member state Assembly. The exit poll projects the party to win at least 128 seats, while the best projection gives it a whopping 161 seats.

If these projections hold good, this will be the third straight win for the party in the state, and the second under its incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. For the Congress, which ceded power to the BJP in 2003, the projected outcome will mean another five years of exile from power.

But the projections for Rajasthan is a bigger setback for the Congress. The party was expecting to retain power in the state under the leadership of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, particularly hoping to cash in on some of his popular welfare schemes.

 However, four pollsters predict a certain defeat for the party, thus paving the way for the rival BJP’s return to power under the leadership of its charismatic leader Vasundhara Raje. One exit poll even predicts a three-fourths majority for the BJP in the 200-member state Assembly.

Through the campaigning phase last month, the Congress was entertaining hopes of wresting power from the BJP in Chhattigarh after a gap of 10 years. But three of the four exit polls give the BJP a third successive term in power under Chief Minister Raman Singh. Even the fourth exit poll predicts a near-win for the party, with the Congress ending up as a close runner-up in the 90-member state Assembly.

The biggest shock for the Congress is projected to be inflected in Delhi, the Union Territory, which the Congress has ruled since November 1998 with Sheila Dikshit at the helm.

The best case scenario exit poll gives the party not more than just 22 seats in the 70-member assembly. Two of the four exit polls predict the BJP to win a simple majority.

The other two exit polls predict a hung assembly, and one of these exit polls expect the fledgling Aam Aadmi Party under Arvind Kejriwal to emerge as the single-largest party and the Congress to end up as a poor number three in the triangular race.

The Congress may not even have a consolatory victory in the form of a win in Mizoram, the state where it is currently in power.

The solitary exit poll for the state by C-Voter expects the Congress to emerge as the single-largest party in the 40-member state assembly. A rival alliance led by Mizo National Front may also be well within striking range to form the next government, if it manages to garner support of independents and others who are seen to be holding the key to government formation after the results.

As the gloomy projections emerged, the Congress declined to comment on these exit polls, saying it was a matter of its policy not to offer comments.

The party also avoided sending its leaders to participate in discussions on television news channels over these projections.