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SP OBC outreach vs BJP Hindutva push: west UP contest will come down to this
Modi remains undented, but can SP damage enough of BJP OBC support is the question.

The aggressive pitch of Union Home Minister Amit Shah as he campaigns door-to-door in western Uttar Pradesh, which goes to polls in the first two phases, reflects the unease in the BJP over the traction the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance seems to be getting, at least in optics.

Shah took charge of the campaign soon after several OBC leaders left the BJP in quick succession for the SP. This is expected to help Akhilesh Yadav’s outreach to OBCs, to blur caste lines and expand the SP beyond its Muslim-Yadav vote bank. In western UP, where the RLD holds considerable sway among Jats, that makes the SP-RLD combination a formidable one.

With father Mulayam Singh Yadav virtually retired, this is Akhilesh’s first solo election. And in both the outreach to OBCs and bonhomie with RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary, he is banking big on the shake-up of the SP’s base. The alliance also brings together Jats and Muslims, the region’s two substantial groups whose relations have been strained by the 2013 riots.

With the Narendra Modi wave waning to some extent, the BJP’s hold over the OBC vote has also slackened.

The OBCs constitute over 50% of the state’s population. In 2017, the SP had contested 311 constituencies and won 47, with 21.82% votes, and the RLD 277 seats and won 1, with 1.78% votes. The BJP had got 39.7% votes.
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“The SP strategy is working, its support base is getting bigger. Now that Jats are with us, more communities are backing us. Some of them had shifted to the BJP in 2017 and 2019,” says Bhavsingh Gurjar, a vegetable vendor in Fatehabad, an SP supporter.

Laxman Mahore, another vegetable seller, chips in: “Price rise and unemployment are big issues. Even Dalits want to see the SP-RLD win this election.”

Mahesh Chand Yadav, who runs a truck service centre in Agra, agrees “sameekaran (understanding)” is happening, but says that doesn’t enthuse him about the SP-RLD’s prospects. “It is not likely to make much of a difference other than making it a tough fight. A BJP defeat is unlikely as it has urban support. And while the backwards are not vocal about it, the BJP has a vote bank in the name of Ram Mandir.”

Jawar Singh, who runs a small roadside eatery in Mathura, brings up the anger among farmers, a large number of them Jats, against the BJP over the farm laws. “Jat farmers were already upset with the Yogi government, then came the police atrocities. Jats are self-respecting people. They will not forgive the BJP,” Jawar says.
Also Read |At meet led by Shah, BJP reaches out to Jats, sends feeler to Jayant

Babloo Kushwaha, a farmer in Agra, is certain there is a realignment of communities behind the SP and RLD. “Pichadi jati ko ye tay karna hai unko dharam chahiye ya vikas (the backwards have to decide whether they want religion or development)… The government has no issue other than temple. Mandir se insaan ka pet nahin bharega (A temple cannot counter hunger),” he says, adding, “More Kushwahas, Gurjars and Sainis will support the BJP this time.”

In the 2017 Assembly elections that the BJP had swept, winning 312 of the 384 constituencies it contested, the support of non-Yadav OBC communities like Kurmis, Mauryas, Shakyas, Sainis, Kushwahas, Rajbhars and Nishads had been crucial. Apart from its Hindu identity card, the BJP had promised development and jobs.

Now, apart from OBCs turning towards the SP-RLD, the failure to push employment is haunting the BJP. The party has been blaming Covid for it.

The Muslim vote, meanwhile, is expected to rally enmasse behind the SP-RLD. “Muslims this time will not let their votes get split. They will vote only for the SP,” says Ahmed, a daily wager in Agra city.

However, Azamgarh’s Ayaz Asif, who is studying at Aligarh Muslim University, expects at least some Muslim votes to go to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which has announced plans to field 100 candidates in UP.

Asif also believes it might not be easy for Muslims to put aside the rancour of the 2013 riots to back a party standing with the Jats.

One of the constituencies where the BJP seems comfortably placed is Kasganj. “In this constituency, the BJP has the support of Lodh Rajputs, Baghels, Thakurs and Rajputs. There is no major dent in its vote base,” says Saurav Verma, a munim at a brick kiln.

Anik Choudhary, a B. Tech student at AMU, believes the BJP also has the upper hand when it comes to social media, cutting across castes. “Many students have not had the chance to go to college campuses or meet others and talk. They spend their time online and get bombarded with material produced by the ruling party,” Choudhary says.

And then there is Modi, whose image remains largely intact. “Modi as a leader still evokes hope and people want to believe him. The backwards, cutting across caste lines, trust him. Once the PM hits the campaign trail, the BJP’s graph will rise and the confusion over this so-called fight would disappear,” declares Dinesh Kumar, a social worker in Kasganj.